🔍 U.S. Economic and Housing Forecast: April 2025 Overview

🧭 Macroeconomic Trends

• GDP Growth (Q4/Q4):
  • 2024: 2.5%
  • 2025: Revised down to 0.5%
  • 2026: 1.9%
  • 📉 Lower GDP expectations reflect weak business investments and economic uncertainty.
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY:
  • 2025: 3.5%, up from previous forecast of 3.2%
  • 2026: 2.8%
  • Core CPI (excluding food & energy) is expected at 3.9% in 2025 — elevated inflation remains a concern.
• Federal Funds Rate (End of Year):
  • 2025: 5.1%
  • 2026: 4.2%
  • Gradual easing expected, but still relatively high in historical context.
• 10-Year Treasury Yield:
  • Hovering around 4.3% through 2026, providing some stability in long-term rate outlooks.

💼 Employment & Labor Market

• Job growth slows in 2025:
  • 2024: +2.0 million jobs
  • 2025: Only +0.8 million
  • Unemployment rate to rise slightly, reaching 4.7% by Q4 2025, peaking at 5.1% in mid-2026.

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🏡 Housing Market Forecast

🏠 Home Sales (Total Annual Units):

• 2024: 4.75 million
• 2025: Revised down to 4.86 million (from 4.95M)
• 2026: Projected rebound to 5.18 million
• Existing Home Sales (Majority of Market):
  • 2025: 4.19 million
  • 2026: 4.47 million
• New Single-Family Sales:
  • 2025: 677k
  • 2026: 712k
  • 📈 Upward momentum due to moderate inventory recovery.

🧱 Housing Starts:

• Total Starts (2025): 1.32M (down from 1.37M in 2024)
• Single-Family Starts: 964k
• Multifamily Starts: 359k (steady)

💵 Home Price Forecast (Fannie Mae HPI YoY):

• 2024: +5.3%
• 2025: +4.1%
• 2026: +2.0%
• 🔻 Deceleration of home price growth, but still positive — a soft landing rather than a crash.

📉 Mortgage Rates:

• 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
  • 2024: Avg. 6.7%
  • 2025: 6.5%
  • 2026: 6.1%
  • 🏦 Slight rate relief anticipated, improving affordability modestly.

📊 Mortgage Originations ($ Trillions, 1–4 Units):

• 2024: $1.69T
• 2025: $1.98T
• 2026: $2.33T
• 🔼 Driven by expected refi activity increase and purchase market stabilization.

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🧠 Real Estate Insight

As an Irvine-based real estate professional, here’s how I interpret these trends for my clients:

1. Opportunity in Early Buyer Movement: Despite economic softness, rates are expected to decline slowly, which could unlock pent-up demand in late 2025 to 2026. Buyers who move early may benefit from price stability before stronger competition returns.
2. Sellers Should Act Now: With home price growth slowing, 2025 might be the peak opportunity to list before appreciation cools in 2026.
3. Investors Take Note: Rental markets remain strong amid limited multifamily supply increases. Areas with strong job growth (like Irvine or Garden Grove) will continue to perform well.
4. Loan Planning is Critical: Encourage pre-approvals now to lock in better terms, especially with rates still above 6%. FHA options and local down payment assistance can help first-time buyers stretch budgets.

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🏡 Contact a Local Expert

For a personalized analysis and guidance tailored to your real estate needs in Orange County, reach out today:

HANA JUNG
California Bridge Realty | NICC City of Garden Grove
📞 213-369-3959
📧 [email protected]
🌐 www.hana-realty.com

DRE. 02229858